Power system expansion in Ecuador: A stakeholder driven sustainability assessment of generation technologies

Ecuador experienced severe power shortages in 2024, with blackouts lasting up to 14 h a day, exposing the vulnerability of an electricity system that relies heavily on hydroelectric plants, is affected by drought, and has seen limited investment in new capacity since 2018. In this context, the central government has begun promoting nuclear energy as a medium- and long-term option, despite the country’s lack of experience with this technology and the Electricity Master Plan’s identification of substantial renewable potential. This study provides a sustainability assessment of eight generation technologies for Ecuador’s future energy mix: PV-US, geothermal, onshore wind, biomass, combined-cycle gas turbines, mini hydropower, small modular nuclear reactors, and conventional nuclear fission. The analysis is supported by Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis methods using ELECTRE III and HELDA (Helmholtz MCDA Tool), based on a performance matrix with 15 static baseline sustainability criteria grouped into environmental, technical, economic, and social categories, and weightings derived from a 35-stakeholder survey across the public, private, and academic sectors. Results show that stakeholders rank the availability of domestic resources as the most important criterion, followed by the levelized cost of electricity, risk to human health, and investment costs. When technologies are ranked using these weighted criteria, four renewable options (mini hydropower, onshore wind, PV-US, and geothermal) are preferred, followed by combined-cycle gas turbines and biomass, while both nuclear options are consistently ranked at the bottom. These results recommend that energy policy decisions in Ecuador should be based on transparent, stakeholder-driven assessments of technological options, rather than unilateral decisions detached from stakeholder preferences and system realities.