Availability Heuristic and Probability Misjudgment: Irrational "Hidden Edition Chasing" in Trendy Toy Blind Boxes

Blind box marketing, characterised by its uncertainty and hidden-edition mechanism, is used to encourage customers to buy multiple times in the ever-growing and popular toy industry. Based on the case of Pop Mart, this study uses the availability heuristic and probability misjudgment to explain the psychological mechanism and behaviour of blind box consumption. The analysis suggests that the constant presentation of winning unboxing videos on social media triggers the availability heuristic, leading viewers to seriously overestimate the likelihood of a secret edition and thus repeat and compulsive buying, whereas the non-transparency of probability and the speculation of the secondary market heighten the information asymmetry and reduce consumer trust. Accordingly, targeted measures are recommended, such as compulsory and transparent probability disclosure, cooling-off periods, caps on purchasing, and intervention in the second-hand market. This study sheds light on the paradox of cognitive bias as a force that propels commercial success and simultaneously inflicts harm on consumers, demonstrates the applicability of heuristic theory from the traditional gambling arena to the recent trendy toy market, and offers a theoretical blueprint and practical roadmap for rational consumer choice, ethical corporate marketing, and evidence-informed regulation.