A Resilience Evaluation System for Heritage Tourism Destinations in the GBA under Disastrous Weather

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is rich in cultural heritage resources and has maintained strong momentum in tourism development. However, the region is also highly vulnerable to frequent, severe weather events such as typhoons and rainstorms, which pose significant challenges to heritage conservation and sustainable tourism development. This study aims to establish a targeted resilience evaluation system and clarify its underlying mechanism. Using the Delphi method and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method, this study integrated expert opinions through multiple rounds of consultation. It then assessed the causal relationships among indicators and ultimately established an evaluation system comprising five dimensions and 19 specific indicators. The main results are threefold. First, the five dimensions are ranked by weight as follows: economic resilience, physical resilience, institutional resilience, social resilience, and cultural resilience. Second, the weight distributions for each dimension and specific indicator were clarified, and the weight allocations primarily reflect characteristics such as the outward-oriented nature of the GBA's tourism economy, the high frequency of compound disasters, and the need for cross-border coordination. Third, the DEMATEL method further identified causal networks among the dimensions, which revealed the driving factors for priority interventions. The findings can provide direct decision-making support and practical guidance for heritage tourism destinations in the GBA to optimize their disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and achieve coordinated development between heritage conservation and the tourism industry.