Climate change perceptions and livelihood vulnerability of small-scale fishing communities along the Banadir Coast, Somalia

Small-scale fishing communities along Somalia’s Banadir coast face compounding climate-related pressures, yet remain almost entirely absent from the peer-reviewed literature on climate change perceptions and livelihood vulnerability. This study addresses that gap through a cross-sectional survey of 125 artisanal fishers at two Mogadishu landing sites, Abdiaziz and Hamarweyne. Fishers at both sites perceive substantial climate-related change across all five measured domains — declining fish catch, sea surface warming, increased storm frequency, reduced wind predictability, and shifted seasonal timing — with agreement exceeding 75% of respondents at both sites for every domain except wind predictability, where perceptions diverged sharply between sites (94.9% Abdiaziz vs. 56.1% Hamarweyne). LVI-IPCC composite scores were positive at both sites (Abdiaziz: 0.117; Hamarweyne: 0.133), confirming net climate vulnerability at both landing sites. Both scores indicate that climate Exposure outweighs Adaptive Capacity at each site, meaning neither community’s current coping resources are sufficient to offset the climate stressors they face. The between-site difference in composite score was not statistically significant at the individual-respondent level (Mann-Whitney U = 1807, p = 0.490), and neither were the underlying between-site differences in Exposure, Sensitivity, or Adaptive Capacity considered individually. Livelihood Diversification was the only LVI-IPCC component to show a statistically significant between-site difference, with Hamarweyne scoring weaker (p = 0.018). The great majority of respondents (85.6%) reported receiving no external adaptation support of any kind, although a minority (14.4%) — more common at Abdiaziz — reported some. Because respondents were recruited through convenience sampling at each landing site rather than from a formal fisher registry, these findings should be read as descriptive of the sampled respondents rather than as statistically representative of all Banadir fishers. These findings establish the first empirical evidence base on climate perceptions and livelihood vulnerability for Banadir’s fishing communities, with direct implications for Somalia’s nascent coastal adaptation policy agenda.