Indigenous knowledge for drought and flood forecasting, climate adaptation and early warning in Malawi: a scoping review

Background Climate change is intensifying droughts and floods in Sub-Saharan Africa, threatening livelihoods, food security, and habitability in vulnerable landscapes. This scoping review synthesizes evidence on Indigenous knowledge for drought and flood forecasting in Malawi, focusing on forecasting indicators, relationships with scientific forecasting, and implications for climate adaptation and habitability. Methods Following the Arksey and O’Malley framework and PRISMA-ScR guidelines, peer-reviewed studies and published reports from 1990 to 2025 were identified through Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Of the 814 records identified, 692 remained after duplicate removal, 93 full-text records were assessed for eligibility, and 20 studies met the inclusion criteria. Evidence was synthesized descriptively and thematically. Results Geographically, the evidence was concentrated in southern Malawi, particularly the Lower Shire Valley, with Chikwawa and Nsanje districts represented in 65 and 35% of the studies, respectively. The studies documented ecological, meteorological, riverine and celestial indicators used to anticipate drought and flood conditions and inform local decisions. Reported indicators varied across locations and hazards, with some showing correspondence with scientific understanding of environmental and climate variability, but evidence of predictive reliability was uneven and often based on qualitative or locally reported observations. Integration into formal climate services was constrained by limited validation and documentation, declining intergenerational transmission, environmental degradation, and institutional barriers. Evidence linking Indigenous knowledge-based forecasts to measurable adaptation outcomes was limited. Discussion Indigenous knowledge-based forecasting is used at community level and provides locally relevant information for preparedness and decision-making, but the evidence remains heterogeneous and insufficient to establish its predictive effectiveness or direct adaptation impacts. Co-production among knowledge holders, scientists, and institutions could support systematic documentation, validation, and context-appropriate integration of Indigenous knowledge into climate services, contributing to the habitability of climate-vulnerable landscapes.