The Estimated Health System Cost Impacts of Interventions to Reduce Alcohol Harm in New Zealand: A Modelling Study

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol is responsible for substantial health loss and economic costs. This study aimed to estimate the health gains and health system costs of reducing alcohol consumption in Aotearoa New Zealand (A-NZ). METHODS: This study used the New Zealand Alcohol Intervention Model (NZ-AIM) to estimate the impacts of: (i) a 30% reduction in alcohol consumption from a comprehensive intervention package; and (ii) the elimination of alcohol use. NZ-AIM uses an open cohort approach that replicates the 2018 population by ethnicity (Māori/non-Māori), age and sex. RESULTS: Both elimination of alcohol consumption and a comprehensive intervention package result in large health gains for our open cohort over the next 60 years: 876,000HALYs (95% UI 432,000 to 1,233,000) and 512,000 HALYs (95% UI 358,000 to 637,000), respectively. With no discounting, the health system cost savings over 60 years are substantial: 2018NZ$3694million (95% UI -$1059m to $8682m) for elimination and $13million (95% UI -$1345m to $1606m) for the intervention package. In the first decade, the intervention package accrues NZ$552m (95% UI 362m to 737m) savings to the health system. Health system cost savings are sensitive to the discount rate and to whether costs associated with increased longevity are included. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The potential health gains and health system cost savings from the elimination or a reduction of alcohol consumption in Aotearoa New Zealand are large. The health system cost savings are substantial in the first few decades and then increase due to increased longevity. The findings provide additional evidence to support implementation of alcohol interventions aligning with the World Health Organization's SAFER framework.