Evaluating Bayesian deep learning for robust biomedical time-series classification under distribution shift: A sleep scoring case study

In biomedical time-series classification, machine learning models often suffer from deteriorating accuracy and calibration due to distribution shift. We investigate to what degree Bayesian-inspired deep learning improves robustness through Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Using rodent sleep scoring as a case study, we evaluate BMA under distribution shifts in genotype, laboratory, and species. We systematically compare nine approximate inference methods spanning single- and multi-basin approaches across two neural network backbones on in-distribution (ID) data and five out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets. In our results, multi-basin methods perform best, outperforming baselines and single-basin methods. Compared with point estimates, BMA generally improves OOD accuracy and calibration across both architectures, while yielding only modest ID gains. It also often improves selective prediction and OOD and artifact detection, but, interestingly, not inter-rater disagreement detection.