Catching needles in haystacks: a structured search framework to optimise counter-poaching patrols

Counter-poaching patrols are a primary tool for protecting wildlife in threatened landscapes, yet detection rates of active poaching incursions are typically low and patrol planning frameworks that have been operationalised and performance-assessed remain rare. We describe a structured search framework applied over a decade of counter-poaching operations in the Kenyir Core Area, Malaysia, 1,200 km² of mountainous tropical forest critical to Malayan tiger recovery. Drawing on search theory and actor-based crime scripting, we developed a network of prioritised patrol routes based on poacher terrain use, termed Operational Patrol Space (OPS). This was combined with a vigilance metric that tracks time elapsed since each route was last patrolled. This two-stage framework guides rangers first to detect initial sign of an active incursion using OPS patrol routes, then to fix the precise location of the active poaching team using targeted search lines within a reduced search region. Following implementation, active incursion detection rates increased from 16% to 50% and success pinpointing the active camp location rose from 20% to 56%, with patrol team numbers held constant. We discuss transferability to other protected area contexts and provide sufficient methodological detail for the framework to be replicated and adapted by other teams.