Inconclusive longitudinal associations between violence exposure and adolescent conduct problems: A comment on Swingler et al. (2026)

Based on positive cross-lagged effects in data (N = 357, 51.5% female) from two waves of measurement, Swingler et al. concluded that violence exposure in early adolescence represents a prospective risk factor for conduct problems. However, it is well known that cross-lagged effects may be spurious. We fitted alternative models to data simulated to resemble the data used by Swingler et al. and found discrepant increasing, decreasing, and null effects of violence exposure on subsequent change in conduct problems depending on the analyzed model. A meta-analytic pooling of these discrepant effects did not differ significantly from zero. Hence, the findings by Swingler et al. may have been spurious and their conclusion premature. It is important for researchers to bear in mind that associations, including cross-lagged regression effects, in observational (i.e., non-experimental) data may be spurious in order not to overinterpret findings. We recommend researchers to scrutinize cross-lagged effects by fitting alternative models to data and to base conclusions on a juxtaposition of findings.