Smart Industry and Ecological Sustainability: Industry 4.0 Technologies, Renewables, and the US Production Ecological Footprint

ABSTRACT The United States ranks 5th globally in terms of the per capita ecological footprint (ECF) and 2nd in terms of the total ECF and is responsible for intensive energy consumption, resource exploitation, and carbon‐intensive industrial production. However, achieving sustainable industrial development requires understanding which ecological modernization pathways are associated with reducing environmental pressures in the long run. Our study evaluates the long‐term associations of AI and eco‐innovation, supply chain efficiency, industrial renewable energy consumption, GDP growth, and foreign direct investment with the ECF in the United States. In terms of methodology, the study employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) using US data from 1990 to 2023. The long‐run ARDL estimation suggests that AI and eco‐innovation, supply chain efficiency, and industrial renewable energy consumption are statistically significant and negatively associated with the ECF in the country over the long run. In contrast, GDP growth and foreign direct investment are significant positive ECF drivers within long‐run dynamics. However, supply chain efficiency shows the largest estimated negative long‐term association with ECF among the modernization pathways examined. Nevertheless, this result is model‐specific evidence rather than proof of universal superiority in comparison with other modernization pathways. Alternative long‐run estimators provide additional support for the baseline associations, although the alternative‐indicator specifications reveal sensitivity to variable measurement. In addition, the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality results suggest that FDI follows unidirectional predictive precedence toward ECF. Overall, the findings suggest that ecological modernization in the United States operates through innovation capability, operational efficiency, and energy transition, each of which is associated with ECF through a different mechanism. Federal policymakers may consider prioritizing these ecological modernizers as long‐term complementary pathways and set combined policy actions to reduce ECF in the country.