Export-Led Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Carbon Emissions: CCE-Based Panel ARDL Evidence from Newly Industrialised Countries

This study examines the impacts of economic growth, exports, and FDI on per capita CO₂ emissions in NICs (1982-2023). Employing CCE-based Panel ARDL and causality tests, the findings provide no long-run support for the EKC hypothesis. In the linear specification, economic growth increases emissions in the short run, while the causality results identify exports as the most consistent transmission channel to CO₂ emissions. Conversely, FDI exhibits no significant association with carbon emissions, suggesting that pollution is more closely linked to national production structures than foreign capital. These findings highlight the carbon-intensive nature of export-oriented development in NICs and the need for greener export strategies.