Empirical Evidence of Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) Precursors for Japanese Seismic Activity: A Multi-Stage Pruning and Shindo-Scaled Batch Verification

Empirical Evidence of Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) Precursors for Japanese Seismic Activity: A Multi-Stage Pruning and Shindo-Scaled Batch Verification (Version 1.0.0) Abstract Earthquake short-term forecasting has long faced scientific skepticism due to the mechanical difficulty of directly measuring subsurface fault stresses. Here, we present empirical evidence demonstrating that localized ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) perturbations serve as robust pre-seismic precursors across a wide spectrum of earthquake magnitudes in Japan, ranging from moderate seismic intensity (JMA Shindo 3 / M 3.8–4.4) to catastrophic rupture (JMA Shindo 7 / M7.5 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake). By leveraging Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM/IONEX, 1-hour resolution) and establishing a 4-stage pseudo-signal pruning pipeline—integrating planetary geomagnetic disturbance shielding (Kp < 3.5), regional spatial differential filtering against nationwide solar fluctuations, and temporal persistence criteria (≥ 2 consecutive hours)—we successfully eliminate 100% of quiet-time false alarms. A systematic batch verification across 20 representative shallow crustal seismic events in Japan reveals: Shindo 3 Events (M3.8–4.4): 75.0% Precursor Hit Rate (6 of 8 events, average lead time 98.8 hours / ~4.1 days prior). Shindo 4 to 5-Weak Events (M4.5–5.4): 100.0% Precursor Hit Rate (7 of 7 events, average lead time 110.0 hours / ~4.6 days prior). Shindo 5-Strong to 7 Events (M5.5+): 100.0% Precursor Hit Rate (5 of 5 events, average lead time 118.5 hours / ~4.9 days prior). Overall Precursor Detection Rate: 90.0% (18 of 20 events, mean lead time 108.5 hours / ~4.5 days prior). Pre-seismic anomalies consistently emerge within a golden window of 3 to 5 days (~70–120 hours) prior to rupture, physically corresponding to micro-crack stress accumulation and positive hole (p-hole) charge release (Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling, LAIC). This localized physical evidence also scientifically disproves popular teleconnection myths regarding distant trans-oceanic earthquake triggering (e.g. South America or Indonesia). This archive contains the full pre-print paper, reproducible Python source codes, complete CSV verification datasets, high-resolution figures, and an interactive 4-layer realtime observation dashboard (HTML/JS).