Balancing commercial space services and military sovereignty: Benefits, risks and dependencies

Abstract The commercialisation of space has shifted military functions from sovereign assets to privately operated satellite systems. Drawing on the literature on military outsourcing, this article examines the implications of this transition for contemporary warfare, integrating a literature review with 15 expert interviews. Our analysis shows that commercial satellite services provide armed forces with rapid access to advanced capabilities, cost-efficient scalability and technological innovation that would be difficult to generate through the procurement of state-owned systems. At the same time, reliance on private actors introduces multidimensional vulnerabilities, including loss of operational control, exposure to political and regulatory constraints, technical fragility and legal ambiguity inherent in dual-use space infrastructure. To structure these trade-offs, the article develops a framework based on mission criticality and the degree of control retained by the armed forces, which yields three configurations: predominantly commercial, hybrid and sovereign. Acceptable dependence, the analysis shows, turns on these two dimensions rather than on cost or market alignment. It also indicates that commercial space provision operates through the same mechanisms as commercial military services more broadly, distinguished by its setting rather than its logic.