The TRIPP Initiative in the New Geopolitics of Connectivity in the South Caucasus: Political-Legal Foundations, Possible Linkage with the Middle Corridor, and Strategic Risks

Following the Washington Declaration of 8 August 2025, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) became one of the key elements of the emerging framework for reopening regional communications in the South Caucasus and for long-term U.S. engagement in the region. The Armenia–U.S. Implementation Framework published in January 2026 outlined the project’s political and operational logic, while the subsequent Framework Agreement established a more concrete legal and institutional basis, including the creation of the TRIPP Development Company (TDC), a 74 percent U.S. controlling share and 26 percent Armenian participation, long-term development rights, and a front office/back office model for border and customs management. This paper examines TRIPP not as an already established international transport corridor, but as a multimodal infrastructure and political project still in formation. Particular attention is given to the distinction between formal legal sovereignty and its practical exercise, the governance structure of the TDC, the 49–99-year framework of development rights, the operational mechanisms of border control, and the long-term strategic risks for Armenia. The paper argues that TRIPP’s possible integration with the Middle Corridor is neither automatic nor predetermined. Such integration would require physical continuity, customs and digital interoperability, competitive tariffs, predictable governance, and sufficient freight volumes. The central conclusion is that the project’s potential economic benefits for Armenia remain insufficiently quantified, while a number of long-term legal, security, regulatory, and geopolitical risks are already visible. TRIPP should therefore be assessed not only through its political significance, but through a systematic comparison between measurable economic benefits and the strategic risks assumed by Armenia.