Simulation of Radiative Redistribution and Photovoltaic Energy Losses during Spring Dust Storms over the Taklimakan Desert

Abstract. Dust aerosols affect the surface radiation budget and photovoltaic (PV) power generation by changing the extinction and scattering of solar radiation. We used WRF-Chem to perform paired simulations with and without dust radiative feedback for three spring 2025 dust storms over Tazhong in the Taklimakan Desert. Dust radiative feedback reduced surface shortwave radiation at Tazhong by 84.46–90.52 W/m² and increased longwave radiation by 33.09–39.72 W/m². The maximum near-surface heating rate reached +12.61 K/day. Surface shortwave radiative forcing correlated significantly and linearly with the 550 nm aerosol optical depth (AOD550), with a forcing efficiency of −50.6 to −80.7 W/(m²·τ). The strong dust event on 26 March reduced daily power generation by 50.96%, while the 3 May and 20 May events reduced it by 18.68% and 1.87%. Under low dust loading and during dust onset and dissipation, enhanced scattering and cooler modules slightly raised the plane-of-array (POA) irradiance and power generation of bifacial modules, but these gains could not offset the losses under heavy dust. The POA loss ratio increased nonlinearly with AOD550 and followed power-law relationships with AOD550 and near-surface PM10. These relationships can support power forecasting and dust protection at desert PV plants.