Layered transitions: the strategic evolution of scripted content in European premium television (2002–2019)

Abstract The paper analyzes the evolution of premium television in Europe from 2002 to 2019 through an institutionalist lens, emphasizing the layered and incremental transformation of programming strategies. Drawing on a manually curated dataset of 1134 television series distributed by premium operators, we combine longitudinal analysis of programming catalogs with log-linear growth models and bootstrap resampling to examine shifts in the balance between scripted and unscripted content, and between original productions and broadcast-originated series. Our findings support two hypotheses: first, that scripted content gradually gained prominence without displacing unscripted formats, exemplifying a process of institutional layering; and second, that the growth of scripted programming rested throughout on a combination of original commissioning and licensed acquisition, with neither superseding the other. The shift proceeded without identifiable phase boundaries: scripted content remained below a quarter of new titles until 2006, passed half from 2014, and reached 80% by 2019, while unscripted output continued to grow throughout. This study reveals how European premium operators strategically adapted within existing institutional structures, offering a new framework for understanding contemporary television production in transnational, multi-platform contexts.