MbEBC (EnergiaBeneComune): investment, return (IRR) and value (MbVEL) of a distributed solar-hydrogen system in 26 European Union countries

This paper applies MbVEL (Value = Energy + Labour) to the MbEBC (EnergiaBeneComune) model: a distributed system of photovoltaics (PV), blade-less wind, electrolysers, hydrogen (H2) tanks and already existing turbines that brings the cost of energy towards 0 and, at equal value, leaves room for higher pay. MbVEL is the main work; MbEBC tests its physical and financial feasibility and also answers how to do it. The elements of MbEBC are MbVEL-2, MbVEL-3, MbVEL-4 and MbVEL-5. Revenues are the market value of the energy produced by PV (MbVEL-2 and MbVEL-3, which add up), of offshore wind (MbVEL-5) and, with heat, of hydrogen (MbVEL-4). With 500 €/kW for PV and inverter, 250 €/kW for the electrolyser, tanks simulated with biomethane tanks and sized on the daily cycle, prices without taxes and average household and business network costs, the IRR (average annual return on capital, net of 30-year amortisation) exceeds the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) in 20 of 26 countries with available prices: for example Italy 21.3% against 6.46%, France 13.2% against 5.18%, Germany 10.2% against 3.79%. Without public contributions the premise does not hold in 6 countries (Estonia, Finland, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Hungary). With the 2023 public environmental transfers (25 countries with data, Eurostat) the investment on the national potential would be covered in 4.3 years in Italy (a figure dominated by a one-off energy-saving transfer), 9.6 in Germany and 50.4 in France, and in more than 100 years in 8 countries. How much should be installed each year of panels, electrolysers, tanks and turbines in two phases is also computed: short (MbVEL-2 and the hydrogen chain) and long (MbVEL-3). With offshore wind (MbVEL-5) and hydrogen the model shows that fossil fuels (gas, oil, coal) for electricity and road transport can be replaced, with declared rules and costs; the weighted average cost is 75.2-82.6 €/MWh during amortisation and 16.8 after; Section 9 also shows where the thesis does not hold without grants and leaves to each State, through a European referendum, the political choice of who manages the value created. AI-use statement: The original idea of the Value = Energy + Labour indicator and of the EnergiaBeneComune model is the author's, Marco Bava, as are the considerations collected in the preparatory document "Trilogia economica dell'idrogeno". Data collection, calculations and drafting were carried out with the assistance of an artificial intelligence assistant (Claude, Anthropic); the author reviewed the contents and is solely responsible for the work. Openness: the author is fully open to receiving constructive and documented comments and criticism: [email protected] / L’autore è pienamente disponibile a ricevere osservazioni e critiche costruttive e documentate: [email protected].