Populism and conspiracy theories: A cross-national analysis

How prominent are conspiracy theory beliefs among supporters of populist and radical right movements? Are they characteristic of the populist ‘thin-ideology’ rather than the ‘thick’ ideologies that accompany it and are they associated with supporting candidates in elections? While the literature notes a convergence between the populist worldview and conspiratorial beliefs, most studies analyze single countries, and miss out on broader cross-national patterns. In two studies, I examine whether conspiracy theory beliefs are associated with support for populist and radical right parties across Europe, distinguishing populism’ s effect from accompanying ideologies, using two large cross-national European datasets, the Voices of Central Europe dataset (9 countries) and European Social Survey (24 countries). Study 1 shows nuanced results with conspiracy theory beliefs strongly associated with support for both populist and radical right parties in Central Europe when controlling for party family, with radical right ideology being the strongest predictor, while Study 2 demonstrates similar associations with latent populist attitudes and authoritarianism, as well as feeling close to a populist or radical right party and having voted for them in the previous election. While conspiracy theory believers are shown to be more likely to support populist candidates, this relationship leans heavily rightward. These results further our understanding of the consequences of conspiracy theory beliefs on voter behavior by providing cross-national evidence for the conspiracy theory-populist connection.