Hedging for digital sovereignty: Ethiopia in major power information competition

Amid intensifying US–China rivalry, the cognitive domain has become a critical arena of geopolitical competition, particularly for states in the Global South seeking to preserve digital sovereignty. This article examines how Ethiopia navigates major-power information competition through a strategy of cognitive hedging. Drawing on the literature on strategic hedging, digital sovereignty, and cognitive warfare, the study argues that Ethiopia selectively engages competing external actors—leveraging Chinese digital infrastructure and investment while simultaneously interacting with Western normative and informational frameworks—to maintain strategic autonomy and regime stability. The Ethiopian case demonstrates that secondary states are not merely passive recipients of external influence but active agents capable of balancing technological dependence, information control, and narrative management within a contested digital environment. The article further shows that cognitive hedging extends beyond traditional security and economic domains into struggles over information flows, public narratives, and domestic legitimacy. By conceptualizing “digital sovereignty” as a form of strategic autonomy in the digital age, the study contributes to emerging debates on information competition, digital geopolitics, and the agency of secondary states in multipolar international politics.