Spatiotemporal Evolution and Factors Influencing High-Quality Energy Development at the Provincial Level in China

Promoting high-quality energy development is of great significance for achieving China's “dual carbon” goals and ensuring high-quality economic development. Therefore, this paper places high-quality energy development within the context of high-quality economic development. This article also reveals, from a systems perspective, the four-dimensional synergy mechanism of “innovation and openness, economic efficiency, low-carbon and clean-development, and safety and reliability”. The entropy method is used to measure the development level of China's energy system and subsystems. The Moran index (Moran's I) and kernel density estimation are combined to analyze the systems' clustering characteristics, regional differences, and spatial evolution patterns. Co-linearity tests and two-way fixed-effects models are used to identify the factors that influence high-quality development. The results show the following: (1) China's high-quality coordinated energy development continues to improve, but regional development and growth remain uneven. The development level is highest in the east, followed by central and western regions, and is lowest in the northeast. (2) The economic efficiency and green and low-carbon subsystems have developed well. The eastern and central regions need to strengthen the safety and reliability subsystem, while the western and northeastern regions need to prioritize enhancements to the innovation and openness subsystem. (3) Provinces with high development levels exhibit “economy-driven” or “energy-driven” characteristics. These provinces have an increased positive spatial correlation in inter-provincial development levels, with an increase in both economic and energy characteristics. The study also identifies expanded national regional disparities, a decline in polarization in the eastern and central regions, and a shift from multipolar to bipolar development in the western region. The study's results inform the following proposals: Development speed and quality need to be balanced to narrow regional gaps based on local conditions. Establishing regional energy interconnection models would help promote coordinated development. Building intelligent, modern energy management systems would also help ensure healthy and orderly system development.