One, two, many postdoctoral careers? Subjective and objective career perspectives in academia and beyond

Abstract Using a convergent mixed-methods design, this study examines how labor-market conditions and subjective career experiences shape postdoctoral trajectories in Germany. We integrate employment biographies for 5,927 PhD holders with 60 interviews conducted with postdocs in experimental particle physics and modern history to trace transitions within and beyond academia. Quantitative analyses reveal strong disciplinary disparities five years after the PhD: physicists more often secure full-time, better-paid, permanent jobs outside academia, while historians face fragmented, lower-paid, and insecure paths. Qualitative findings complement these patterns: physicists anticipate and prepare for non-academic transitions, whereas historians experience ongoing uncertainty, hidden unemployment, and limited orientation toward alternatives. Across fields, fixed-term contracts compress time horizons and foster a gradual, drawn-out exit process, although strong commitment to research often delays departure. We conceptualize transitions as continuous, discipline-sensitive processes that begin early in the postdoc phase and highlight the need for employer recognition and institutional reforms to reduce precarity.