The positive correlation between physical exercise and the fertility intention of women of childbearing age: an empirical analysis based on the Chinese General Social Survey

In the context of declining fertility rates and an aging population, enhancing the willingness to conceive among women of childbearing age is crucial for alleviating demographic challenges. This study analyzes data from the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) Using benchmark regression, propensity score matching, mediation analysis, and heterogeneity testing, this study examines the positive association between physical exercise and fertility intention. The findings indicate a statistically significant positive correlation. First, physical exercise is positively associated with ideal fertility among women of childbearing age. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) benchmark regression yielded a coefficient of 0.046 ( p < 0.01) without controls and 0.087 ( p < 0.01) with full control—results that were corroborated by multiple robustness checks. Second, mediation analysis indicates that health status and subjective well-being partially mediate this relationship: physical exercise is positively associated with ideal fertility by improving both health status and subjective well-being. Third, heterogeneity analysis shows that the coefficient estimates are descriptively larger for younger women (≤30) and urban residents, but formal interaction tests indicate that these differences are not statistically significant at conventional levels ( p > 0.05). These findings suggest that population policies might consider physical exercise as a component, foster a fertility-friendly environment, and promote the reciprocal benefits of physical exercise and personal well-being, provided that future causal evidence supports the observed associations.