From short to long hauls: The role of waiting time uncertainty in relay transport adoption

Relay transport has emerged as a promising collaborative strategy in which trucks exchange trailers or drivers at designated nodes before continuing to their destinations. This operational mode helps mitigate long-standing inefficiencies in traditional direct transport, including low operational efficiency, high fuel consumption, and poor driver working conditions. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing trucking companies’ adoption of relay transport under uncertainty. Because shipment distances shape delivery requirements and operational characteristics, two stated choice experiments were designed for short-haul (300 km) and long-haul (600 km) shipments. Each experiment included three labeled alternatives: direct transport, relay with driver exchange, and relay with trailer exchange, varied by shipment characteristics, relay time, uncertain waiting time, driver overtime, and cost. Using survey data from 275 Japanese trucking managers, a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) choice model with random parameters and error components was estimated to capture companies’ heterogeneous decisions under uncertainty. The results identify factors influencing relay transport adoption in each experimental context. Uncertain waiting time, cargo type, vehicle type, relay time, shipment frequency, driver overtime, cost, and company characteristics (firm and fleet size) significantly affect adoption and choice of exchange method (drivers or trailers). These findings provide practical insights for policymakers and logistics authorities seeking to promote relay transport adoption.