Flawed policies in dam construction and their hydropolitical ramifications: a case study of the Atatürk Dam

Large dams can produce significant environmental, geological, and geopolitical impacts, particularly in transboundary river basins. This study examines the Atatürk Dam on the Euphrates River, one of the largest components of Turkey’s Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), to evaluate its potential geological, environmental, and governance implications across the Euphrates and Tigris basin. An integrated analytical framework was employed by combining seismological analysis, satellite-based land use assessment, and governance evaluation. Historical seismic records (1905 to 2020) were analyzed to investigate potential reservoir-induced seismicity, while remote sensing data (2001 to 2023) were used to assess long-term land cover changes. Governance performance was evaluated using indicators aligned with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) water governance principles, including transparency, stakeholder participation, accountability, and transboundary coordination. Results suggest that reservoir impoundment may have contributed to increased pore pressure and reduced fault stability, correlating with increased seismic activity in the region, including two moderate earthquakes (Mw 5.5 and 5.1) recorded after 2004. Remote sensing analyses reveal significant environmental transformations across the basin between 2001 and 2023, including a 30 to 40% reduction in vegetation cover, an 88% decline in evergreen needleleaf forests, a 33% loss of mixed forests, and a decrease of more than 15,000 km 2 of croplands. Concurrently, barren lands expanded by more than 33,000 km 2 , indicating accelerating land degradation trends. Downstream impacts include reduced water availability and associated ecological and agricultural stress in Syria and Iraq. Governance assessment further indicates systemic weaknesses in transparency, data sharing, environmental compliance, and formal transboundary agreements, suggesting that institutional limitations may amplify environmental and political pressures within the basin. The findings highlight the importance of integrating seismic risk assessment, environmental sustainability, and cooperative transboundary water governance in large-scale hydraulic infrastructure planning. The Atatürk Dam provides an important case study illustrating how large dam projects may generate complex environmental and governance challenges when implemented without sufficiently integrated regional risk management.