Signals before the exit: Understanding student attrition through academic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, and institutional factors

Aim: This study aimed to examine the contributors and early warning signals of student attrition at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines (PUP), the largest state university in the Philippines, with particular attention to the gap between expanded access to public higher education through the Free Education Law and students' continued participation and completion.It also sought to develop a context-sensitive student retention framework for public higher education institutions. Methodology:The study employed a convergent parallel mixed-method case study design integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches.Quantitative survey data from 399 students across 23 PUP campuses were analyzed using descriptive statistics, including frequencies and percentages to summarize respondents' demographic characteristics and weighted means to describe their perceptions and experiences across academic, socioeconomic, institutional, and psychosocial domains.Qualitative data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with students at risk of attrition or who had discontinued their studies and analyzed using Braun and Clarke's six-phase thematic analysis to explore their lived experiences.Quantitative and qualitative findings were integrated through triangulation, with institutional enrollment and graduation records providing contextual support, to identify patterns, contributing factors, and potential early warning signals associated with student attrition.Results: Survey findings from 399 respondents showed varying weighted means across academic (WM = 3.64), socioeconomic (WM = 3.10), institutional (WM = 3.43), and psychosocial (WM = 3.80) domains.Given the mix of positive and negative items, these means were descriptive rather than direct measures of attrition risk.Among the 399 respondents, health concerns (25%), financial difficulties (17%), and mental health challenges (14%) were identified as factors that could influence their decision to take a leave of absence from their studies.Interviews revealed interconnected challenges involving academic overload, indirect educational costs, institutional inflexibility, emotional exhaustion, declining task submission, and social withdrawal.These findings suggest that student attrition develops gradually, highlighting the need for proactive identification and timely institutional support.Conclusion: The study concluded that expanding access to higher education through the Free Education Law needs to be complemented by retention-focused institutional strategies to ensure that increased access translates into persistence and completion.A context-sensitive student retention framework was proposed, integrating early warning indicators with targeted institutional interventions.The framework has implications for higher education policy, institutional management, student support, and social equity by providing a proactive approach to identifying and addressing the interconnected conditions associated with student attrition, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged learners in public higher education.Keywords: Student attrition; early warning signals; student retention; retention framework; public higher education and the resources needed to complete it remain unequally distributed.The World Bank (2022) identifies disparities in access to tertiary education and unequal returns to educational attainment among contributors to persistent inequality in the Philippines.In higher education, a student's admission should therefore be distinguished from continuing participation and degree completion.The 1987 Philippine Constitution recognizes the right to quality education (Republic of the Philippines, 1987).Policy reforms include the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps), a conditional cash-transfer program linked primarily to health and basic education, and Republic Act No. 10931, the Universal Access to Quality Tertiary Education Act, which establishes free tuition and other school fees for eligible students in public institutions and related aid mechanisms (Republic Act No. 11310, 2019; Republic Act No. 10931, 2017).These measures expand opportunity but cannot establish degree completion on their own.In its Year Two reporting, the Second Congressional Commission on Education highlighted a reported 39% national higher-education attrition figure; its definition and reference period should not be conflated with an institution-specific rate (Second Congressional Commission on Education [EDCOM II], 2025).Student attrition in higher education is an interdisciplinary problem because it involves interconnected conditions that extend beyond academic performance.A systematic review by De la Cruz-Campos et al. (2023) identified low academic performance, insufficient social support, low socioeconomic status, pessimism, and lack of motivation among the factors associated with university dropout.Understanding these conditions requires the integration of several disciplinary perspectives.Education examines academic readiness, engagement, belonging, curriculum, and teaching and learning; psychology addresses motivation, emotional well-being, stress, adjustment, and decision-making; sociology considers family and peer relationships, social integration, and inequality; and economics examines household income, employment demands, financial barriers, and the opportunity costs of continued study.Institutional management and governance address student services, administrative processes, and institutional responsiveness, while public policy examines how educational reforms support equitable access, retention, and completion.Integrating these perspectives enables the study to examine how difficulties across different domains combine to influence students' educational participation.This interdisciplinary perspective is particularly relevant when government interventions seek to reduce financial barriers to higher education.In a Philippine evaluation of the Tertiary Education Subsidy program, Bayudan-Dacuycuy et al. (2024) identified implementation challenges involving beneficiary selection, fund disbursement, and monitoring.These findings indicate that financial assistance must be considered alongside the institutional processes through which students receive support.Psychological experiences also warrant attention: in a cross-sectional study of 295 university students in Chile, Cobo-Rendón et al. (2023) examined the relationships among academic emotions, adjustment to university life, and dropout intention.Although dropout intention does not establish that actual withdrawal will occur, its examination provides a basis for considering students' experiences before they formally discontinue their studies.Together, these studies support an approach that connects financial conditions, academic experiences, psychological adjustment, and institutional support.The Polytechnic University of the Philippines (PUP) provides an important multi-campus setting for this accessretention question.In a December 2023 response published on the Philippine government's Freedom of Information portal, PUP reported 87,469 enrolled students for academic year 2023-2024 (Polytechnic University of the Philippines, 2023).This dated figure describes a particular academic year, not the study's sampling population, and should not be equated with the 23 campuses from which the present 399 survey responses were reported.Within PUP, students' academic experiences, livelihood demands, psychosocial well-being, and interactions with institutional systems warrant examination together.Although previous research has examined multiple dimensions of student attrition, the present study focused on connecting these dimensions with early warning signs of disengagement within PUP's institutional context.International evidence provides a foundation for understanding attrition, but its application requires attention to the circumstances of students and the organization of support in Philippine public higher education.The research problem therefore concerned how academic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, and institutional factors relate to disengagement, how emerging difficulties can be identified before formal withdrawal, and how these indicators can inform coordinated retention strategies.This focus links the explanation of student attrition with the practical development of timely and contextually appropriate support.Thus, this study examined how financial constraints, emotional well-being, academic readiness, and institutional support were related to students' decisions to persist or leave.Specifically, it investigated the factors contributing to student attrition and the early warning signs of disengagement among students at PUP, anchored in three interrelated theoretical models.The study examined demographic characteristics, academic experiences, socioeconomic status, institutional and systemic conditions, and psychosocial circumstances.It also examined the early warning signs of disengagement experienced by at-risk students in relation to academic, institutional, socioeconomic, and psychosocial factors.Drawing on these findings, the study integrated the identified contributors to attrition and warning signs of disengagement into a comprehensive and strategic student retention framework for public higher education.The framework connected student attrition risk factors with measurable indicators and targeted academic, psychosocial, financial, and institutional interventions, providing a structured basis for the early identification of at-risk students and the implementation of appropriate retention strategies. Review of Related Literature and StudiesThis section reviews literature and studies on student attrition, emphasizing the interconnected academic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, and institutional conditions associated with disengagement and persistence.Organized thematically, the review draws on international and Philippine research t