Shifts in the Gendered Economic Foundations of Marriage Among Cohabiting Couples in the United States, 1983–2019

ABSTRACT Objective This study examines historical change in the gendered economic foundations of marriage among U.S. cohabiting couples from 1983 to 2019. Background Men's economic prospects have long been central to marriage formation, and women's have become more important over time. Less is known about historical change in associations between partners' relative earnings and marriage and whether these patterns differ by education. Method This study analyzes 16 panels of the nationally representative Survey of Income and Program Participation ( https://www.census.gov/programs‐surveys/sipp/data.html ), following 19,014 different‐sex cohabiting couples prospectively from observed cohabitation onset (183,710 couple‐months; 2647 marriages). Cox proportional hazards models estimate associations between couples' relative earnings and marriage across cohabitation‐onset cohorts and by couple education. Results Dual‐earner and male‐breadwinner couples have similar marriage hazards. Female‐breadwinner couples have lower marriage hazards, particularly in earlier cohabitation‐onset cohorts, but this negative association attenuates over time. The female‐breadwinner association is substantially more negative among couples in which neither partner has a college degree than among couples in which either partner has a college degree, with little evidence that its change over time differs by education. Conclusion The economic correlates of marriage have become less differentiated by gender. This change is driven primarily by a declining marriage penalty associated with female breadwinning, while dual‐earner couples remain broadly similar to male‐breadwinner couples. Implications In the context of stalled progress toward gender equality, these findings point to meaningful but incomplete change in the gendered economic foundations of marriage, alongside persistent educational disparities in the marriage penalty associated with female breadwinning.