China Shock 2.0 in Asia: Asymmetric Trade Dependence and Uneven Productivity Growth

Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2623 The second “China shock” has been characterized by expanding Chinese exports alongside stagnant imports. Using a balanced bilateral trade matrix and the APO Productivity Database 2026, this note finds a mirror-image asymmetry among China’s Asian partners. Between 2018 and 2024, China’s share of goods imports rose by 7.5–15.4 percentage points in Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, while its share of their exports was flat or lower. China became a more important supplier, but not a more important market. Yet TFP growth diverged, from 1.24% a year in Vietnam to −1.59% in Cambodia. The patterns are descriptive, not causal.