Beyond spending: Governance quality and citizens’ perceptions of public institutions as drivers of individual resilience

Abstract In the current times of polycrisis, citizens’ resilience is crucial but its determinants are not well-understood. We employ multilevel regression models using longitudinal individual-level and country-level data across 23 European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. In line with previous studies, we find that individuals’ resilience is driven by their economic, human, social, and “institutional capital.” We then specifically focus on objective measures and citizens’ subjective perceptions of institutional capital. We find that social expenditure in most policy areas is associated with individuals’ resilience. Labor market programs seem most important. Beyond government effectiveness, political stability, rule of law, and control of corruption also matter. In addition, subjective perceptions of public service quality and trust in public institutions are crucial, too, even after accounting for objective measures. These relationships are stronger in Southern and Northern Europe. Our findings suggest that strengthening citizens’ resilience requires strong governance and citizens’ positive perceptions of it.