A Bayesian analysis of childhood tobacco consumption in early-modern Netherlands

Archaeological research on tobacco consumption has traditionally focused on adult populations, implicitly assuming that smoking was exclusively an adult behavior. This paper challenges that assumption by examining macroscopic dental evidence for tobacco use among non-adult individuals from the Dutch post-medieval period. We analyzed deciduous and permanent dentition from 103 individuals aged 3-20 years from three skeletal assemblages representing distinct socioeconomic and environmental contexts. Tobacco consumption was assessed using established osteological indicators (i.e., pipe-notches and dental staining) and modeled using Bayesian linear regression. Across the total sample, 20.4% of non-adults exhibited evidence of tobacco consumption. Smoking-related markers were consistently associated with higher age-at-death, supporting the expectation that macroscopic indicators reflect cumulative exposure. Multiple Bayesian models were compared and the preferred model, which included an interaction between smoking status and site, was fitted to the skeletal data, revealing evidence of inter- and intra-site variation. Specifically, while age-at-death differences between smokers and non-smokers were uncertain in the urban assemblages, a credible difference was observed in the rural population, where smoking was concentrated among older non-adults. These patterns suggest that childhood tobacco use was socially embedded but also shaped by local labor practices, supervision, and norms rather than socioeconomic status alone. Although macroscopic markers are constrained by mortality bias and sample limitations, our study demonstrates that childhood smoking was neither rare nor anomalous in post-medieval Dutch society. Moreover, we show that integrating osteological evidence with Bayesian modeling offers a robust framework for investigating age-structured behaviors in past populations, even with smaller samples.