The precarity trap: Modelling longitudinal trajectories of precarious youth employment and associations with mental health in the Australian HILDA Survey

Abstract Background Early employment experiences are an important determinant of health and wellbeing in later adulthood. However, research on the mental health impacts of precarious employment has largely focused on older working-age adults, with limited attention paid to the consequences of employment precarity in young people under the age of 25. This study aimed to identify longitudinal trajectories of precarious employment during emerging adulthood (18–24 years) and examine associations with short- and long-term mental health outcomes. Methods Group-based trajectory modelling and adjusted linear/logistic regressions were applied to panel data from the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. The analytic sample ( n = 498; person-year observations = 5,856) included participants employed between ages 18–24, with mental health measured at 25 and 35 years using the Mental Health Inventory-Five Item (MHI-5). Informed by a lived experience youth advisory group, employment precarity was measured with subjective survey items capturing perceived job security and job control. Results Two distinct trajectories of precarious employment were identified: persistent high precarity and low and decreasing precarity . Overall, persistent high precarity was associated with poorer mental health at age 25, particularly for females. By age 35, distinct sex differences emerged. For the job security dimension, males in persistent high precarity trajectories exhibited significantly poorer mental health compared to females. Conversely, females had significantly poorer mental health at 35 for persistent low job control. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that early and chronic employment precarity is associated with poorer short- and long-term mental health and suggest sex-specific pathways of vulnerability to different aspects of precarity. Policymakers and employers can help to safeguard the current and future mental health of young Australians by promoting secure and supportive working conditions.