Demarcation: conspiracy theories and misinformation

Misinformation and conspiracy theories are often treated as interchangeable, but they have different predictors and respond differently to correction. We identify their differences at the level of the claim itself rather than at what these claims trigger in the mind of the believer. Whereas misinformation claims are, in principle, assessable against a ground truth, conspiracy theories are claims wrapped in an explanation for why evidence is absent or untrustworthy. This semantic criterion avoids conflating bare falsehoods with conspiracy theories while preserving the distinctive structural features of the latter. We show how the wrapper grants conspiracy theories a degree of immunity from disconfirmation and why a claim-level demarcation can inform both theory and measurement.