The Severe Economic Impact of Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge and Ocean Warming in the Pacific: Evidence from Ovalau, Fiji

This study develops an integrated spatial–economic framework to quantify market and non- market losses from sea-level rise and storm surge (SLR/S) through 2100 in Ovalau, Fiji. As with many Pacific Island Countries (PICs), Ovalau faces disproportionate SLR/S risks, while an economic assessment is constrained by limited spatial and valuation data. The framework used here integrates spatial modeling, market valuation, willingness-to-pay estimates for cultural heritage, and the Total Economic Value of coastal ecosystem services. Given the available data for Fiji, by 2100, SLR/S is projected to affect 6.0% of Ovalau’s land and 30.4% of dwellings under RCP4.5, increasing to 11.5% and 56.0%, respectively, under RCP8.5. Under RCP8.5, critical infrastructure, including the hospital, airport, commercial areas, town hall, and heritage sites, are severely affected. Average annual losses are estimated at USD 133.8 million under RCP4.5 and USD 321.7 million under RCP8.5, with cumulative damages reaching USD 9.9 billion and USD 23.8 billion, respectively. Ecosystem services, coral reefs, and cultural heritage dominate estimated welfare losses, demonstrating that market-based assessments substantially understate climate damages. These findings support incorporating natural and cultural non-market values into climate-risk assessments and prioritizing early, integrated adaptation in data-scarce small-island economies.