Analysis of Arrhenius and Peck Reliability Models Integration Applied to Silicon Photovoltaic Modules in the Sahel Climate

In the Sahel region, where climatic conditions are characterised by elevated temperatures, intense irradiance and highly variable relative humidity, photovoltaic (PV) modules are exposed to substantial environmental stresses. Questions remain regarding the influence of these climatic parameters on their degradation and longevity. The central challenge is therefore to predict accurately the accelerated ageing of materials used in PV modules subjected to these extreme climatic conditions. This study presents an analysis of the integration of the Arrhenius and Peck reliability models applied to silicon PV modules in the Sahelian climate. The objective is to evaluate the applicability of these models to improve the estimation of the useful lifetime of PV systems. To this end, a numerical modelling approach was employed using MATLAB/Simulink. This approach explicitly integrates ambient temperature, PV module temperature, and relative humidity into the modelling of the reliability function, considering these parameters as the primary factors that influence ageing mechanisms. Simulations show that the Arrhenius and Peck models are complementary for assessing the reliability of PV modules in the Sahelian climate. Considering the seasonal variability of climatic conditions, an estimated lifetime range of 15 to 20 years, with a reference value of 17 years, appears plausible for PV modules that are properly installed and maintained. These findings have implications for the planning, sizing, and predictive maintenance of photovoltaic installations in the Sahelian environment. This research underscores the importance of incorporating temperature and humidity into reliability models simultaneously. Future investigations may focus on integrating in situ data to improve model accuracy.