Managing climate stress for food security: the impact of rising temperatures on agricultural performance in Africa (1990–2022)

Purpose Climate variation driven primarily by carbon emissions is a major driver of global warming, significantly raising Earth’s temperature. This study examines the influence of rising temperatures and carbon emissions on agricultural performance (AGP) in Africa from 1990 to 2022. The aim is to identify management policies that enhance sustainable agricultural resilience and moderate the adverse effects of climate change. Design/methodology/approach This research employs second-generation panel econometric techniques. The short- and long-run (LR) relationships between AGP, temperature, carbon emissions, sustainable finance and population growth are estimated using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model. Findings The results disclosed the fact that rising temperatures and carbon emissions significantly reduce AGP, highlighting the urgent need for proactive environmental management. Conversely, sustainable finance and population growth positively influence long-term AGP and food security. These variables emerge as crucial levers for climate adaptation and agricultural resilience across Africa. Practical implications Climate stress has made agricultural production more unpredictable and this threatens food security. The findings stress the need for integrated environmental and agricultural management policies. Hence, the study recommends that policymakers and financial institutions must prioritize investments in climate-smart agriculture and sustainable finance to address the challenges posed by climate variation, ensuring sustainable agricultural resilience and food security. Originality/value This study provides new evidence on the links between rising temperatures, carbon emissions, sustainable finance, population growth and AGP in Africa by jointly examining their short-run and LR dynamics within a panel framework, thereby offering policy-relevant insights for climate-resilient agricultural and financial strategies.