Increasing dengue outbreaks in temperate Brazil are associated with Aedes aegypti invasion and infestation levels
Abstract Dengue fever, caused by dengue virus (DENV), is one of the most significant mosquito-borne diseases globally, with increasing risk due to the expansion of Aedes vectors into subtropical and temperate zones. Brazil accounted for 70% of dengue cases reported worldwide in 2024, and the virus has recently become endemic in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. Here, we integrate entomological, epidemiological and environmental data and generate complementary genomic data to investigate DENV dynamics in Southern Brazil from 2015 to 2023. During this period, Aedes aegypti expanded across state municipalities, with a marked increase in dengue cases from 2020 onward. Nearly half of the municipalities surpassed the incidence threshold of ≥20 cases per 100,000 residents per year by 2023, indicating endemic transmission. Genomic analysis of 665 new DENV genomes is consistent with the local persistence of viral lineages across years, driving seasonal outbreaks. Moreover, Northwest and Metropolitan regions are identified as key hubs for viral spread within the Rio Grande do Sul state. These findings highlight the north-to-south expansion of dengue into temperate regions, emphasizing the urgent need for intensification of vector control and surveillance in newly endemic areas to mitigate dengue burden in a mostly naive human population.
Authors
- Marcelo Henrique Santos Paiva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3069-9417)
- Filipe Zimmer Dezordi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3259-3456)
- Gustavo Barbosa de Lima (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7000-2026)
- Gabriel Luz Wallau (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1419-5713)
- Ludmila Fiorenzano Baethgen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4871-8877)
- Ana Beatriz Gorini da Veiga (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1462-5506)
- Richard Steiner Salvato (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5701-9437)
- Felipe Gomes Naveca (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2888-1060)
- Fernanda Marques de Souza Godinho (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2211-192X)
- Tatiana Schäffer Gregianini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9912-9060)
- Erica Bortoli Möllmann
- Danielly Alves Mendes Barbosa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4540-0334)
- Amanda Pellenz Ruivo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2955-7701)
- André Luiz Sá de Oliveira (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2483-550X)
- Matheus Filgueira Bezerra (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7102-6804)
- Fernanda Letícia Martiny
- Rafael Maciel‐de‐Freitas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2198-6492)
- Élgion L. S. Loreto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7586-8168)
- Daniel Antunes Maciel Villela (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8371-2959)
- Gonzalo Bello (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2724-2793)
- Andreia Carina Turchetto‐Zolet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7365-1360)
- Tiago Gräf (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4921-7975)
- Thales de Lima Bermann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6023-322X)
- Tainá Machado Selayaran
- Franciellen Machado dos Santos
- Caroline do Nascimento Ferreira
- Túlio de Lima Campos
- Júlia Gabriela Caldas Amancio
- Luiz Felipe Valter de Oliveira
- Milena Bauermann
Institutions
- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (BR)
- Universidade Federal de Ciências da Saúde de Porto Alegre (BR)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- University of Münster (DE)
- Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (BR)
- Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (BR)
- Fiocruz Amazônia (BR)
- Instituto Carlos Chagas (BR)
- Instituto Oswaldo Cruz (BR)
- Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (BR)
- Universidade Luterana do Brasil (BR)
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (BR)
- Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-10-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-78978-9
- Primary Topic
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz