Civilian Satellite Megaconstellations and the Gap in Continuous Verification: Payload Substitution, Cross-Border Manufacturing, and Local Economic Dependence

This risk declaration examines a potential gap between authorisation of civilian satellite megaconstellations and continued independent verification of their actual configurations and capabilities. Identical declared mass does not demonstrate identical internal composition. The growing scale of deployment, cross-border separation of manufacture, launch and operation, and possible economic dependence of host jurisdictions may complicate sustained scrutiny. Two distinct risk pathways are considered: terrestrial harm during reentry and physical interference with other spacecraft. Neither pathway is treated as demonstrated precision-strike capability, and no wrongdoing or concealed weapons are alleged against any particular operator. The paper distinguishes established observations from conditional hypotheses and proposes proportionate, cross-jurisdictional verification before deployment becomes difficult to reverse.