EU ETS and Transshipment Hub Competition: A Resource-Based Systems Thinking Assessment of Cai Mep-Thi Vai and Singapore

The extension of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to shipping raises the compliance cost of calling vessels. This study examines how Vietnam’s renewable energy endowment and Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DPPA) mechanism shift the competitive position of Cai Mep-Thi Vai (CM-TV) against Singapore, combining the Resource-Based View, the TOE framework, and Causal Loop Diagramming. CM-TV holds a domestic energy advantage that Singapore has not been able to replicate domestically, while Singapore leads in technology and organization but depends on imported green fuel. A cost simulation shows CM-TV trails Singapore on the EU ETS component alone but gains a net saving through FuelEU Maritime’s lower-cost domestic fuel, though congestion and certificate verification lag can erode it. The paper proposes a port-energy integration model, anchored by a green economic zone at CM-TV, to convert this window into a durable position within a dual-hub routing strategy.