Risk-Factors of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever Across Six Tertiary Hospitals in Afghanistan from 2022 to 2025: Reported Exposures, Healthcare-Worker Clustering, and Ribavirin Treatment-Timing Analyses

Introduction Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in Afghanistan, but multi-hospital data characterising reported exposure patterns, healthcare-worker clustering, and ribavirin-mortality associations after accounting for treatment timing are lacking. Methods A retrospective cohort study included 737 laboratory-confirmed CCHF patients admitted to six tertiary hospitals in Afghanistan between January 2022 and December 2025. Reported exposures were assessed by occupation and tick-contact history. Clustering of healthcare-worker (HCW) infections during high caseload was assessed by permutation testing. Ribavirin-mortality association was assessed using multivariable Cox regression adjusted for clinical severity, age, sex, hospital, and comorbidity, with sensitivity analyses addressing treatment timing immortal-time bias. Results Among 737 patients, the median age was 35 years and 78.3% were male. The hospitalization fatality ratio (HFR) was 27.7% (204/737). Of 574 patients with recorded occupation: 33.6% were livestock handlers, 12.9% slaughterhouse workers or butchers, 24.9% household meat preparers, and only 11.1% reported tick exposure. Nineteen patients were HCWs, and 18 became infected during periods of concurrent CCHF admissions, and clustering exceeded chance (p=0.012), consistent with healthcare-associated exposure during surges. Personal protective equipment (PPE) was used in 728 (98.6%) admissions, but its composition was incomplete: 532 (72.2%) comprised mask and gloves without a gown, and only 205 (27.8%) with mask, gloves, and gown. Isolation rooms were available for only 274 of 737 admissions (37.2%). Among 727 patients in the ribavirin analysis, 85.0% received treatment. Conventional analysis suggested lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.57) but affected by immortal-time bias. The association weakened for same-day treatment versus no treatment (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.41-0.96; sensitive to model specification) and was absent in time-varying analysis (HR 0.93). Conclusion CCHF in this hospitalised Afghan cohort was commonly associated with reported animal and livestock-related exposure, while healthcare-worker infections clustered during outbreak surges. Isolation capacity and caseload may be important correlates of healthcare-associated risk alongside PPE availability. Ribavirin findings were sensitive to treatment-timing adjustment and cannot establish a causal survival benefit.

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Journal
medRxiv
Published
2026-10-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.24.26366389
Primary Topic
Viral Infections and Vectors
Type
preprint

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preprint

Risk-Factors of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever Across Six Tertiary Hospitals in Afghanistan from 2022 to 2025: Reported Exposures, Healthcare-Worker Clustering, and Ribavirin Treatment-Timing Analyses

Lisa J. White, Sanah Essayagh, Touria Essayagh, Fatima Arifi et al.
medRxiv
Viral Infections and Vectors
preprint

Risk-Factors of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever Across Six Tertiary Hospitals in Afghanistan from 2022 to 2025: Reported Exposures, Healthcare-Worker Clustering, and Ribavirin Treatment-Timing Analyses

Lisa J. White, Sanah Essayagh, Touria Essayagh, Fatima Arifi, Nathaniel Hupert, Mohammad Nadir Sahak, Rehmatullah Zadran, Siyu Chen, Ghayasuddin Saraj, Yiyu Chen, Husna Sadat
preprint en

Abstract

Introduction Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in Afghanistan, but multi-hospital data characterising reported exposure patterns, healthcare-worker clustering, and ribavirin-mortality associations after accounting for treatment timing are lacking. Methods A retrospective cohort study included 737 laboratory-confirmed CCHF patients admitted to six tertiary hospitals in Afghanistan between January 2022 and December 2025. Reported exposures were assessed by occupation and tick-contact history. Clustering of healthcare-worker (HCW) infections during high caseload was assessed by permutation testing. Ribavirin-mortality association was assessed using multivariable Cox regression adjusted for clinical severity, age, sex, hospital, and comorbidity, with sensitivity analyses addressing treatment timing immortal-time bias. Results Among 737 patients, the median age was 35 years and 78.3% were male. The hospitalization fatality ratio (HFR) was 27.7% (204/737). Of 574 patients with recorded occupation: 33.6% were livestock handlers, 12.9% slaughterhouse workers or butchers, 24.9% household meat preparers, and only 11.1% reported tick exposure. Nineteen patients were HCWs, and 18 became infected during periods of concurrent CCHF admissions, and clustering exceeded chance (p=0.012), consistent with healthcare-associated exposure during surges. Personal protective equipment (PPE) was used in 728 (98.6%) admissions, but its composition was incomplete: 532 (72.2%) comprised mask and gloves without a gown, and only 205 (27.8%) with mask, gloves, and gown. Isolation rooms were available for only 274 of 737 admissions (37.2%). Among 727 patients in the ribavirin analysis, 85.0% received treatment. Conventional analysis suggested lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.57) but affected by immortal-time bias. The association weakened for same-day treatment versus no treatment (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.41-0.96; sensitive to model specification) and was absent in time-varying analysis (HR 0.93). Conclusion CCHF in this hospitalised Afghan cohort was commonly associated with reported animal and livestock-related exposure, while healthcare-worker infections clustered during outbreak surges. Isolation capacity and caseload may be important correlates of healthcare-associated risk alongside PPE availability. Ribavirin findings were sensitive to treatment-timing adjustment and cannot establish a causal survival benefit.

medRxiv
University of Liverpool (GB), Queen Mary University of London (GB), Kabul University (AF), Cornell University (US), Health Protection and Research Organisation (AF), World Health Organization - Afghanistan (AF), Université Hassan 1er (MA), Weill Cornell Medicine (US)
TDR
Viral Infections and Vectors
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