The Yardstick-First Rule: Why Measured AI Obligations Move Their Own Start Dates

Every AI obligation has two dates: the date the duty starts, and the date the instrument that measures compliance with it is published. This research note calls that instrument the yardstick and proposes the Yardstick-First Rule: a measured AI obligation becomes enforceable on its original date only if its yardstick was published first, with time to spare. Two measures make the rule testable. Yardstick Lead (YL) is the duty date minus the yardstick date, in days. Yardstick Coverage (YC) is the share of core requirements with a recognised yardstick in force. Six cases are coded from primary sources: China's AI content labelling rules, EU AI Act Article 50, New York City Local Law 144, South Korea's AI Basic Act, the Colorado AI Act, and the EU AI Act high-risk regime. In every case where YL was zero or negative, the date moved (4 of 4). Both cases with positive YL applied on schedule for new systems. As of 26 October 2026, YC for the EU high-risk regime is at most 1 of 8. The note shows that, on the standardisation request's own timetable, the remaining EU standards would be cited on 2 June 2027, leaving 183 days before the deferred date of 2 December 2027. It registers three dated predictions with explicit falsification criteria.