Profitability in Seafood Restaurants: The Relative Importance of Cost Structure and Demand-Related Factors

This study analyzes the variables related to profitability in seafood restaurants using data from the 2025 Seafood Restaurant Management Survey conducted by the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI). To examine the factors associated with profitability, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), XGBoost, and SHAP analyses were employed. Profitability was measured as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue, while explanatory variables included food cost ratio, labor cost ratio, seafood cost ratio, import ratio, number of visitors, changes in average spending per customer, industry type, and coastal location. The results indicate that food cost ratio and labor cost ratio have statistically significant associations with profitability. Japanese cuisine was positively associated with profitability, while the price-increase and coastal-location variables showed significant negative associations. However, these associations were relatively small compared with those of the cost-related variables. In contrast, seafood cost ratio and import ratio were not significantly associated with profitability. The number of visitors showed a significant negative relationship with profitability. XGBoost and SHAP analyses consistently identified food cost ratio and labor cost ratio as the most important variables in the prediction model. These findings suggest that overall cost structure is more closely associated with profitability than seafood-related characteristics. Furthermore, a larger number of visitors does not necessarily translate into higher profitability, highlighting the importance of efficient cost management and overall operational efficiency. The findings provide exploratory implications for restaurant management and seafood-related policy development.