Interactive economic management and forecast-aware electricity sharing via aggregator-led stackelberg coordination of storage arbitrage and community carbon trading

This study develops an interactive economic management framework for electricity–carbon trading in renewable-rich communities by coordinating photovoltaic (PV) prosumers through an Aggregator of Prosumers (AOP), Storage e-Transportable (SET) units, and coupled market signals. The AOP jointly manages electricity and carbon transactions, dynamic buying and selling prices, SET charging and discharging, and cross-period storage arbitrage to improve solar-energy utilization and support community decarbonization. A hierarchical Stackelberg game represents the asymmetric interaction between the AOP as leader and prosumers as followers, while the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) enables distributed optimization with privacy-preserving local decisions. Prosumers adapt shiftable demand and electricity-trading behavior in response to time-varying electricity–carbon prices, whereas tradable emission reduction (TER) credits provide an additional carbon-related revenue stream. An Eco-Social Welfare (ESW) model integrates economic efficiency, carbon mitigation, participation fairness, renewable-energy utilization, and social engagement. Simulations for a six-prosumer urban community in China show that coordinated operation increases renewable-energy utilization by approximately 15–17%, raises total system profit by about 12%, and reduces community carbon emissions by around 3% relative to independent operation. The ESW assessment further indicates an overall welfare improvement exceeding 10%. These results demonstrate how storage arbitrage, distributed Stackelberg coordination, and electricity–carbon trading can jointly enhance flexible renewable utilization, economic interaction, and low-carbon community operation.