The Threshold Effect of Agricultural Socialized Service Scale on Promoting Agricultural Modernization

Agricultural socialized services are a key driver of China’s agricultural modernization. Clarifying the “reasonable boundaries” of their scale not only helps build a service system suited to moderate-scale agricultural operations but also facilitates the optimal allocation of agricultural resources and a steady improvement in service efficiency. Based on the transaction–coordination dual-cost model, this study constructs a theoretical analytical framework for how agricultural socialized services promote agricultural modernization. This study integrates agricultural development data from 30 Chinese provinces for the period 2011–2023 and employs a threshold regression method to examine the impact of agricultural socialized services on the year-on-year growth rate of agricultural modernization, as well as any stage-specific differences. The results indicate that agricultural socialized services have a significant positive effect on the year-on-year growth of the agricultural modernization index; that is, improvements in the level of agricultural socialized services help accelerate the pace of agricultural modernization. This accelerating effect is more pronounced in the eastern regions and in areas with higher per capita disposable income; meanwhile, the impact of agricultural socialized services on the year-on-year growth rate of agricultural modernization exhibits a nonlinear effect based on the scale of the services. Accordingly, it is recommended to establish a targeted service delivery system, implement support policies tailored to local conditions, and promote high-quality development driven by two engines in order to fully unleash the promotional role of agricultural socialized services in agricultural modernization.