Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Future Trajectories of Landscape Ecological Risks in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, China

As a pivotal node of China's national ecological network, the Danjiangkou reservoir area has long been a focal point for ecological security due to its complex human–land interactions and high ecological vulnerability. Optimizing land use patterns is therefore essential for supporting sustainable ecosystem growth in this area. Utilizing the Landscape Ecological Risk Index (LERI), this study characterized the historical evolution of ecological risks (2000–2020). To explore future risks, the PLUS model was employed to project future land use patterns across various scenarios for 2030, and the related risks were evaluated in the reservoir area. The findings reveal that (1) From 2000 to 2020, land use structure underwent substantial reconfiguration, with forest and water expansion contrasting with declines in cultivated land and grassland, driven primarily by ecological restoration and reservoir construction; (2) The Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) exhibited strong positive spatial autocorrelation, with highrisk clusters concentrated in central zones with intensive human activity, while low-risk areas remained in mountainous regions with minimal disturbance; (3) Scenario simulations reveal that under the natural development (ND) and cultivated land preservation (CP) scenarios, urban expansion and agricultural encroachment further increase the aggregation of high-risk patches. Conversely, the ecological protection (EP) scenario – prioritizing restoration and spatial regulation – effectively mitigates risk and expands low-risk areas; (4) To guarantee long-term ecological stability, territorial spatial planning must prioritize ecological protection pathways, complemented by targeted restoration in high-risk zones and cross-administrative synergistic management. These insights provide critical evidence for adaptive management and the pursuit of regional sustainability within the reservoir area.