Validation of Theorem 50 v44.2: Real-Time Prospective Blind Prediction for Tropical Storm Vance and the Verification of the Zero Landfall Metric [13]
This technical record consolidates the real-time prospective validation of the numerical-computational framework v44.2 (Theorem 50) for the incompressible axisymmetric Euler equations with swirl, applied to the monitoring and forecasting of active Tropical Storm Vance (ID: EP222026) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The report was issued under a strict blind-testing protocol using solely the initial kinematic data (t0) provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on October 26, 2026. Unlike global probabilistic models, the algorithm evaluates the vertical derivative of angular wind to determine the net structural balance (\(\mathcal{B}\)). The numerical results yield a source magnitude of \(R_{source} = 1.55\), falling below the certified critical threshold of 2.20. With a resulting negative net balance of \(\mathcal{B} = -0.65\), the model mathematically certifies a Zero Landfall diagnosis, accurately predicting that the system will maintain its core over open waters, curving west-northwestward toward its subsequent dissipation. Simulation codes and the compiled PDF report are attached.
Authors
- rodrigo Eugenio Castillo Fortoul
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-10-26
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23677801
- Primary Topic
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00