Rice and Paddy Prices in North Sumatra: Descriptive Evidence, Harvest Heterogeneity, and A Transmission Framework

This study examines whether available rice-price and harvest records can establish farmgate price exposure in North Sumatra, Indonesia. Descriptive analysis uses 60 monthly farmgate paddy observations, 22 medium-II retail rice observations, and separate local price and harvest summaries. The common provincial price window covers January–November 2024. Across these endpoints, farmgate prices decreased by 6.94%, whereas retail prices increased by 1.43%; seven of ten adjacent-month changes had matching directions. The January–November retail average was 3.99% higher in 2025 than in 2024. Among 82 local farm-account records, paddy prices ranged from IDR 5,800 to 6,800/kg, with an equal-record mean of IDR 6,393.90/kg. The four-subdistrict January–April harvest subtotal declined by 0.73%, despite subdistrict changes ranging from −65.80% to 133.29%. Local records are neither representative provincial observations nor linked to dated sales. The study distinguishes directional price adjustment from measured harvest moderation. Eleven matched price months and the absence of an assembled provincial monthly harvest series do not support the proposed dynamic interaction model. No transmission coefficient, asymmetry test, or causal producer benefit is reported. The findings support product-, date-, and location-specific market reporting, while transmission inference requires a longer jointly observed series.