Evaluation of health and economic impacts of atmospheric PM₂.₅ in Tabriz, Iran, using BenMAP-CE and AirQ+

Air pollution poses a major threat to public health and carries the highest burden of environmentally related diseases. This study evaluated mortality associated with long-term exposure to PM₂.₅ and the corresponding economic burden in Tabriz city. The analysis was conducted using the BenMAP-CE and AirQ⁺ software. We evaluated five scenarios concerning the annual average PM₂.₅ concentration: increases to 35 and 25 µg/m³, decreases to 15 and 10 µg/m³, and a reduction to the theoretical minimum risk level of 2.4 µg/m³. Applying the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) to produce modelled estimates of attributable burden, we estimate that 886 deaths (95% CI: 814–935) among adults are associated with long-term exposure to PM₂.₅ at concentrations exceeding 2.4 µg/m³. Among these, the highest mortality was attributed to ischemic heart disease (435 deaths; 95% CI: 419–446), followed by stroke (102; 95% CI: 79–118), lower respiratory tract infections (71; 95% CI: 53–80), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (45; 95% CI: 33–53), and lung cancer (33; 95% CI: 28–36). This modelled mortality corresponds to an estimated loss of 14,086 years of life lost (YLL). Using a central value of statistical life (VSL) of USD381,212, the mortality-related economic burden was approximately USD338 million. A separate exploratory10% morbidity uplift gives approximately USD372 million; sensitivity to VSL income elasticity and mortality uncertainty is reported separately. These findings highlight the substantial health and economic benefits of improved air quality management in industrial cities. Keywords: Air pollution, PM 2.5 , Economic assessment, Health effects, BenMAP-CE, AirQ+.