Prior-Guided Objective Detection and a 1993–2025 Monthly Record of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf-Slope Front

The Northwest Atlantic Shelf-Slope Front (SSF) separates colder, fresher shelf water from warmer, saltier slope water and influences shelf-slope exchange, coastal ocean variability, and ecosystem conditions. Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program (AZMP) maintained an analyst-derived monthly SSF position dataset beginning in 1973, but routine production ended after 2017. We developed a prior-guided objective sea surface temperature gradient peak detector to provide a reproducible ARMOR3D-based extension of this record. At integer longitudes from 75° W to 50° W, the detector identifies local maxima of the poleward cooling gradient and ranks them using peak prominence and distance from a seasonally adjusted shelf-break prior. Fivefold blocked cross-validation over 1993–2017 selected equal thermal prominence and geographic weighting. Across 6950 out-of-fold comparisons, bias was 0.095° latitude, root mean square error was 0.497°, median absolute error was 0.236°, and 75.7% of positions were within 0.50° of the AZMP-derived SSF. Seasonal peak timing differed by 0.13–0.35 months among the western, central, and eastern regions, and annual correlations were 0.89, 0.74, and 0.69, respectively. However, Peak SSF annual standard deviations were only 49–56% of the AZMP values, so the two records are not directly homogeneous in variability amplitude. The 2018–2025 portion is an ARMOR3D-based extension that has not been independently validated. It reveals regional contrasts rather than a persistent domain-wide displacement. The 1993–2025 Peak SSF dataset provides a reproducible, updateable benchmark for frontal monitoring, shelf-slope exchange studies, ecosystem analysis, and ocean model evaluation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Published
2026-10-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14212004
Primary Topic
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Type
article
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article

Prior-Guided Objective Detection and a 1993–2025 Monthly Record of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf-Slope Front

Blair J. W. Greenan, François Rivest, Shiliang Shan
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
article

Prior-Guided Objective Detection and a 1993–2025 Monthly Record of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf-Slope Front

Blair J. W. Greenan, François Rivest, Shiliang Shan
article en

Abstract

The Northwest Atlantic Shelf-Slope Front (SSF) separates colder, fresher shelf water from warmer, saltier slope water and influences shelf-slope exchange, coastal ocean variability, and ecosystem conditions. Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program (AZMP) maintained an analyst-derived monthly SSF position dataset beginning in 1973, but routine production ended after 2017. We developed a prior-guided objective sea surface temperature gradient peak detector to provide a reproducible ARMOR3D-based extension of this record. At integer longitudes from 75° W to 50° W, the detector identifies local maxima of the poleward cooling gradient and ranks them using peak prominence and distance from a seasonally adjusted shelf-break prior. Fivefold blocked cross-validation over 1993–2017 selected equal thermal prominence and geographic weighting. Across 6950 out-of-fold comparisons, bias was 0.095° latitude, root mean square error was 0.497°, median absolute error was 0.236°, and 75.7% of positions were within 0.50° of the AZMP-derived SSF. Seasonal peak timing differed by 0.13–0.35 months among the western, central, and eastern regions, and annual correlations were 0.89, 0.74, and 0.69, respectively. However, Peak SSF annual standard deviations were only 49–56% of the AZMP values, so the two records are not directly homogeneous in variability amplitude. The 2018–2025 portion is an ARMOR3D-based extension that has not been independently validated. It reveals regional contrasts rather than a persistent domain-wide displacement. The 1993–2025 Peak SSF dataset provides a reproducible, updateable benchmark for frontal monitoring, shelf-slope exchange studies, ecosystem analysis, and ocean model evaluation.

Journal of Marine Science and EngineeringVol. 14(21)
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (CA), Queen's University (CA), Bedford Institute of Oceanography (CA), Royal Military College of Canada (CA)
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
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