Growth, Trend and Decomposition Analysis of Garlic in Rajasthan State, India (2005–06 to 2024–25)

This study examines changes in garlic cultivation in Rajasthan from 2005–06 to 2024–25, with emphasis on cultivated area, production, productivity and the factors contributing to production growth. Secondary time-series data were analysed using absolute and relative changes, coefficients of variation, linear growth rates and a decomposition model that separates area, yield and interaction effects. The analysis covers 20 agricultural years and focuses on the aggregate indicators reported for Rajasthan rather than district-level variation. The reported area increased from 22,392 to 69,471, representing a relative increase of approximately 210%. Production rose from 113,980 to 423,012, equivalent to approximately 271% growth. Reported productivity increased from 5.09 to 6.08, an increase of approximately 19.45%. Variation was greatest for production (60.53%), followed by area (50.50%) and productivity (14.58%). The estimated linear growth rates were 1.57% for area, 2.63% for production and 2.52% for productivity, with the manuscript reporting statistical significance at the 5% level for all three indicators. Decomposition attributed 77.54% of the total production change to area expansion, 15.22% to the interaction between area and yield, and 7.24% to the yield effect. These findings indicate that cultivated-area expansion accounted for most of the increase in garlic production, although improvements in productivity also contributed. The results suggest that measures aimed at improving crop yield warrant attention alongside continued assessment of production trends in Rajasthan.