MedEWSa - End-to-End Scenario Exercise: From Forecast to Warning Communication and Operational Decision Support

This interactive exercise, in the form of a role playing game, is designed for training in hybrid workshops. The interactive exercise aims to show how evolving forecast information supports wildfire preparedness and response in Attica during the high-risk July–August season. It also brings out the limitations of each forecast product. An overview of the exercise layout is presented below. Participants are grouped in four stakeholder teams: regional civil protection (onsite and all online participants), the fire brigade, the electricity infrastructure operator and the airport operator. Each team has its own mandate and mitigation actions, and its own consequences of false alarms and missed events. At several lead times (long term risk [just by assessing the vulnerability and exposure information], 12, 5, 3, 1, 0 day before the event), teams review real forecast products and decide on wildfire likelihood, potential impact, area of greatest concern and an action level, placing their assessment on a risk matrix. The products include the long-term CEMS EFFIS risk layers, soil moisture, weekly anomalies, EFI/SOT for temperature and wind gusts, FWI, the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) and the MedEWSa Fire Risk product, developed by NOA for Greece. A joint session then drafts a possible civil protection warning to the public, based on the available information and the latest presented forecasts before the event. The exercise ends by analysing the real events, which were the Keratea and Megara wildfires of 8 August 2025.