The impact of Trumpism upon the European Green Deal

Abstract The article, based on theoretical and empirical analysis, provides a deeper understanding of the content, scale, and potential of Trumpism as a strategic challenge to the European Green Deal (EGD). Through interdisciplinary and comparative approaches, methods of political ecology, neo-cleavage theory and case study, the impact of Trumpism on the implementation prospects for the EGD is investigated. Particular emphasis is placed on the Trumpist challenge to the global scope and substance of European climate policy. The notable consolidation of pro-Trumpist parties’ influence within the European Parliament and national legislatures of EU member states during the 2020s, particularly since 2024, coupled with their capacity to affect climate policy decision-making through coalition agreements and enhanced collaboration with mainstream centre-right parties, augments intra-structural risks to the implementation of the EGD and poses a substantial threat to the climate consensus at the EU level, potentially jeopardizing the EGD’s continuity in the medium term. Since the relevant economic development plans and roadmaps for Ukraine’s integration into the EU are related to the EGD objectives and taking into account long-lasting effects of the full-scale Russian invasion, there is a need for a more systemic and critical look at the prospects for a gradual increase in taxation of CO2 emissions and fossil fuels in Ukraine as well as its transition to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.